ECB EXPECTED TO CUT RATES BY 25BP ON DECEMBER 12, 2024

ECB EXPECTED TO CUT RATES BY 25BP ON DECEMBER 12, 2024
ECB Rate Cut Prediction: The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to implement a 25bp rate cut at its meeting on December 12, 2024.
Potential for 50bp Cut: While a 25bp cut is most likely, JP Morgan notes that the ECB has not ruled out the possibility of a 50bp cut.
Dovish Guidance: JP Morgan expects a dovish shift in the ECB's guidance, but it is not expected to be significant.
Lagarde's Dovish Stance: ECB President Christine Lagarde’s previous statements to the European Parliament indicated a dovish outlook, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut.
Growth and Inflation Concerns: The outlook has shifted to weaker growth and inflation, influenced by factors such as the US election and potential retaliatory tariffs that could affect inflation and the currency.
Goldman Sachs Forecast: Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to continue lowering rates in sequential 25bp steps, with a target of 1.75% by July 2025, slightly below the neutral rate range